I would love it if they actively dodged. To do it though, they would either have to implement a predictive physics anolysis to decide what animation is appropriate, or use a dice based system that results in comparable values to either play a doge animation, or one for a weapon impact.
If I try to shoot an NPC while undetected but when they are facing me, they almost always dodge my arrows. It is more frequent because of my mods I think. The predictable nature isn't hard to implement in a computer game environment.
My problem with chance systems is this:
When warriors are fighting, it is a case of many things, skill, tactics, determination, heroism and such. But at the commanders level, it is all statistics. Are we at the level of the hero or at the level of commander? This is obviously coming from the war simulations heritage.
I mean why the crude approximation? It is so crude, it is not fun, nor realistic. Chance is a margin of error, a small contributor and maybe nothing when the skill is high enough. The statistics don't mean anything for the performer and we are at the level of the performer in this game. But our skill systems are capable of simulating the combat without relying on dice but still produce the same statistics from far distance, we just need to focus on actual mechanics.
Always hit, I find it stupid. I imagine damage sponges immediately. What is more fun?
Hitting someone again and again for two minutes, watching a bar deplete.
Or just hitting for real. Once. Fatal.
The idea is both fights can have the same duration depending on your character's skill.
In the mod I use, the chance of blocking is increased to %60. In theory, this is good.
In reality, the statistics fail.
Sometimes I can hack and slash, sometimes they start to block again and again. It is not consistent, it is a random chance. Lowering the approximation, adding reaction times with a margin of error can possibly fix this. It is still better though.
Pickpocketing is the same, even with 90% chance people are not happy. Determination is an overrider but it is not in the game, instead people load a previous save. Choice must have a meaning. Give people something so they can back of before failure. Realtime pickpocketing would be nice, use ultra slow motion if necessary. The duration can be player's window for performing the task which is based on character skill. Two bars progressing, item timer and pickpocketing timer. You keep an eye on both and hope for item timer winning the race and you leave before pickpocketing timer ends. I get excited just from writing this.

Skill > Chance.
Statistics are an observation from outside of the actual mechanics . That's the correct way. Otherwise, crude approximation is crude.
http://youtu.be/Q6Jlc44_98Y
I watch these every week and I weep for Bethesda. I WEEP!