I don't think there was any way this could not have gone to civil war, unless Torygg had declined the duel, stepped down and endorsed Ulfric as king.
I agree, but only because I think Ulfric is power hungry. I doubt he would have encouraged Torygg to separate from the Empire, because it removed his entire basis to try and take the High Throne for himself.
I'm not saying the Stormcloaks are wrong for seeking independence, or that the Empire didn't fail to honor their obligations, but I feel that Ulfric Stormcloak himself is a corrupt man seeking to become a despot. His whole "You're either with me or against me" attitude is the exact same reason I abandon the Blades.
I think Torygg was Ulfric's strongest ally for an independent Skyrim and his biggest obstacle to a Skyrim ruled by him, and his desire for power overruled his desire to have Skyrim free under its legitimate ruler.
Measuring on Logos, the Civil War is foolish because it cripples both the Empire and Skyrim, hurting chances of defeating the Thalmor and retracting the White-Gold Concordant.
Measuring on Ethos, Skyrim should be allowed to leave the Empire because the Empire has failed to live up to its social contract with its provinces.
Measuring on Pathos, Ulfric strikes me as a narcissistic and power-hungry brute who takes a just cause and perverts it to his own end, and is willing to destroy the lives of so many of the people he claims to be fighting for, if it means getting power, whereas Torygg strikes me as big picture thinking man who is willing to die for his honor.
That's why I can't side with the Stormcloaks, because while I feel Skyrim should be independent, its better off under the Imperial banner than it is under Ulfric Stormcloak.